Welcome to Loreli community — how to write a useful market thesis

This space is for research, not tips. A good post states: the market, the price you see, the probability you believe and why, what evidence would change your mind, and when you expect the market to reprice. Link posts to a market so they show up on its page. Backtests from the Strategy Lab are welcome — include the parameters and the fee and slippage assumptions you used.