ContrarianBacktest only · unverifiedExample strategy by Loreli

Mean Reversion

Thin markets overreact. When a probability drops well below its recent average without a clear reason, this rule bets that it drifts back.

Open in Strategy Lab Fork into the builder

Markets tested

Median net return

+0.0%

Profitable markets

1 / 8

Markets with trades

Equity · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Most active market in the sample, $1,000 start, default parameters

$972$1,028$1,083$1,139

6 May19 June3 Aug17 Sept1 Nov

Assumptions

Rolling average uses only past and current bars.
Exits on return to the average or after the max hold.
Vulnerable to genuine information shocks that never revert.
Parameters: rolling window (bars) 14, gap below average (pts) 4, max hold (bars) 21.
25% of equity per trade, 1% fee per fill, 1 pt slippage, daily prices, last 180 days.
Sample: the 8 highest-volume live Polymarket markets right now — survivorship bias applies.

Per-market results

Market	Trades	Net return	Max DD	Buy & hold
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	+15.1%	4.0%	-20.7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	0	+0.0%	0.0%	-37.8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	0	+0.0%	0.0%	+14.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	0	+0.0%	0.0%	-29.3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	-3.8%	3.8%	-1.9%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	0	+0.0%	0.0%	-72.7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	-18.2%	21.7%	-86.2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	0	+0.0%	0.0%	+46.5%

Computed from Polymarket price history when this page was generated (refreshed every 15 minutes). Not live trading results. Not verified by an independent party.